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2019 年中国汽车市场:市场与技术催化马太效应

快三根据中国乘用车市场信息联席会公布的数据,2019 年中国市场乘用车销量为 2,104 万辆,比 2018 年减少 170 万辆,同比下降 7.4%。

其中,轿车的降幅最大。轿车在 2019 年的销量为 1,014 万辆,同比下降 9.1%,降幅远大于 2018 年(2.7%)。SUV 的销量为 918 万辆,同比下降 3.6%。MPV 在 2019 年的销量为 137 万辆,同比下降 18.2%,跌幅略大于 2018 年(16.2%)。

分月来看,自 8 月份起,销量持续增长了 5 个月。2019 年 12 月的乘用车销量达到 217 万辆,达到年内销量高点。同时,2019 年 12 月的销量同比降幅也收窄至 3.6%。

轿车在 12 月份突破百万销量

快三2019 年 12 月,轿车的销量为 102 万辆,创年内销量高点。这也是 2019 年内月销量突破百万的唯一一个月。同时,当月轿车销量同比降幅也收缩至全年最小的 6.9%。

从各车型销量占比来看,轿车销量占比在年中一度超过 50%。进入 2019 年下半年,在乘用车整体销量缓慢爬坡中, SUV 的销量占比持续提升 。至 2019 年 12 月,SUV 的销量占比达到 46.3%,而轿车销量占比跌至 47.5%,两种车型的市场份额越来越接近。而在 2018 年,轿车销量占比曾经超过 53%。

SUV 连续两个月实现销量同比增长

快三2019 年 12 月,SUV 销量为 99 万辆,环比保持五个月连续上升。同比增速为 2.5%,创 2019 年 SUV 单月销量新高。

SUV 车型的销量好于其他车型,大众的表现尤其出色。大众在 2019 年继续发力 SUV 市场,其 SUV 产品矩阵已发展为包含 12 款车型的庞大阵容。2019 年 11 月,大众品牌 SUV 销量较去年同期增长 59%,新品带来的单月增量达到 6 万台。

MPV 车型的前景仍不乐观

快三2019 年 12 月,MPV 车型销量为 13 万辆,同比下降 15.2%。

2019 年,MPV 车型销量持续下滑,且各月销量跌幅均在两位数。「五菱奇迹」不再,以微客驱动的 MPV 销量快速增长期早已结束。在汽车消费升级的趋势下,低价 MPV 车型将持续萎缩,而中高端 MPV 仍是小众之选。

转型中的中国汽车市场,机会与挑战并存

中国乘用车销量已连续两年下滑。2018 年销量下降 4%,2019 年跌幅扩大到 7.4%。销量下滑在 2019 年上半年更加突出,多次出现月同比跌幅大于 10% 的情况。进入 2019 年下半年,汽车销量开始回升,环比持续增长。

过去两年,乘用车市场受到多个不利因素的影响:宏观经济增长的不确定性带来收入信心和消费信心走低;中西部楼市火热对家庭消费资金的挤出明显;在国五标准和国六标准切换之际,乘用车市场观望情绪严重;新能源汽车补贴退坡,新能源汽车销量大幅下降;乘用车市场消费升级趋势明显,市场供需出现结构性变化等。

在不利的市场环境下,行业洗牌加速,行业集中度进一步提升。以大众、丰田和本田为代表的德系和日系车企销量不降反增,市场占有率攀升,部分车企甚至出现产能不足的情况。集团化、平台化所带来的优势值得其他车企注意。同时,在电动化、智能化的趋势下,整个汽车行业在成本、研发和决策等方面均面临巨大挑战。尤其是在引入特斯拉这条鲶鱼之后,传统车企和本土造车新势力的压力进一步加大。面对严峻挑战,中小车企更需考虑通过技术合作、联盟以及合并等方式,抱团取暖,以求生存。

2020 年,中国整体汽车市场的销量降幅有望收窄,但仍难言市场将逐步企稳回升。作为全球最大的汽车市场,中国汽车行业的竞争虽然将愈加激烈和残酷,但其吸引力也是无以伦比的。

封面图片来源:Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash

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